Data Dan’s Week 4 Picks

September 21, 2016

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Welcome back to Week 4 of Data Dan’s College football picks!  Week 3 was an unmitigated disaster for my picks and for real college football as well. The two unders I took flamed out spectacularly and Bowling Green took a dump on the field during the second half after a promising 1st half against Middle Tennessee State.  Thankfully my two bigger bets (FAU/KSU over and BYU +3) won and pushed which salvaged the week. Sort of.  In other news, Texas lost, giving up 50 points to Cal in the process with a defense that looked more porous then one of Antonio Cromartie’s condoms. So bad times all around.

 

This week Texas is on a bye so I can focus all of my college football energy into my picks.  It’s going to be a good week, I can feel it.  As a reminder, my picks are based on 3 different mathematical predication models (TeamRankings, NumbersFire and Sportsline) and I try to remain as objective as possible in how I select which games to pick.  This week I’ve decided to just average the 3 models together and assign a value score on a scale of 1-100 rather then report each models individual odds.

 

Here are the picks:

 

Pitt @ UNC:  UNC -7

 

Value (1-100): 90

aptopix-north-carolin_memr1

All 3 models favor UNC at home with the strongest recommendation coming from Sportsline (87 value, A grade pick per their model).  Pitt did it’s best Texas impression last week with it’s secondary giving up 500 yards of passing offense against Oklahoma State last week. UNC QB Mitch Trubisky has looked good in his last two games throwing for nearly 700 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs in that span and should be poised to take advantage of that weak secondary. I expect a reasonably high scoring game with UNC winning by two touchdowns at home.

 

 

Bet: 1 Unit

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Oklahoma State @ Baylor: Baylor -8

 

Value (0-100): 93

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The Data tends to ignore things like poor taste (such as hosting Art Briles and Shawn Oakman, one of the many dudes kicked off the team for sexual assault, in the locker room last weekend – seriously Baylor?) which might explain why the prediction models love the Bears this weekend.  Both Sportsline and NumbersFire heavily favor Baylor in this matchup.  Oklahoma State has been erratic to say the least and gave up 38 and 30 points to the Pitt and freaking Central Michigan in their last two games.  Baylor should score in droves in this game and final score of 41-28 feels right.

 

Bet: 2 Units

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Iowa @ Rutgers: IOWA -13

 

Value: 87

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Strange week as the Data seems to like a lot of favorites.  I read last night that Rutgers shut down it’s pre-game tailgate because their AD was filmed drinking a beer there before their last game.  What kind of weak ass shit is that?  I hope their fans boycott the game or at least turn their backs to the field in shame.  I feel slightly dicey about this one given that Iowa just lost to North Dakota State last weekend, but it’s not like NDSU hasn’t beaten FBS opponents in the past.  Also, Rutgers only had one Big10 win last year and lost the majority of their conference games by an average of 27 points.  Look for an angry Iowa team to stomp Rutgers on the road.

 

Bet: 1 unit

 

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Arkansas @ Texas A&M: Arkansas +6

 

Value: 90

texas-am-v-arkansas-9

It gave me great pleasure to see our prediction models heavily favoring the Razorbacks this weekend at Jerryworld.  I won’t lie – A&M getting a solid road win against Auburn last week while Texas sputtered against Cal did not feel good. I won’t be able to watch the game (I’ll be busy getting married) but I should be able to gauge how the game is going by my die-hard Razorback fan friend Paul’s level of sobriety and overall demeanor during the wedding reception. God I hope the Aggies lose.

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Bet: 2 units

 

 

Last week: 1-3-1

Overall Record: 3-4-1

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