Data Dan’s Week 5 picks

September 30, 2016

st-regis-princeville

Quick column this week as I’m busy getting drunk on a beach in Hawaii for my honeymoon. I continued my ice cold start to the year going 1-3 last week (my nfl picks are 8-3! I swear! Please believe me!), so a viable strategy could be Costanza’ing my picks and doing the opposite of what I recommend. Here’s this weeks losers:

Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green: Bowling Green -2.5
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Value: 100
 
Bet: 2 units
 
Here we go again with bowling green. After letting me down in a big way 2 weeks ago the prediction models again love the Falcons this week. Like erection lasting longer then 4 hours love. God help me.
Navy @ Air Force: Navy +7

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Value: 93
Bet: 1 unit  
 
The ocean vs the sky! Wind vs. water! Falcons versus boat people! The prediction models seem to really like Navy this year and continue that trend picking them as a road underdog.
Memphis @ Ole Miss: Memphis +14.5

Memphis defensive back Dontrell Nelson (10) breaks up a pass intended for Mississippi wide receiver Laquon Treadwell  (1) in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015, in Memphis, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Value: 97
Bet: 1 unit
 
The data likes Memphis to keep it closer then expected on the road against Ole Miss this week. Ole Miss is pretty pissed about losing to Memphis last year, but they should be in for a letdown after the beat down they laid on Georgia last week.
Arizona St. @ USC: ASU +10.5

Sep 28, 2013; Tempe, AZ, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils defensive tackle Will Sutton (90) celebrates with defensive end Davon Coleman (43) after sacking USC Trojans quarterback Cody Kessler (6) during the first half at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Value: 93
 
Bet: 1 unit
 
Just from an eyeball test 10.5 points is lot to give to a 4-0 team from a major conference playing a 1-3 team, even on the road. Even if USC is better then their record suggests, I’ll take the points.
Last Week: 1-3
Overall: 4-7-1

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