The Other Way Column – Data Dan’s Week 6 picks

October 7, 2016
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What a horrible week of college gambling that was.  I managed to pitch a shut out going 0-4 on my picks last week and over the last two weeks I’m now an atrocious 1-7.  I should be ashamed of myself.  On the plus side, I got married last weekend and spent the entire week in Hawaii which lessened the blow somewhat.  I may just start picking names out of hat or something because literally any system of making picks would work better than mine has the last two weeks.  But like any good captain, I plan to go down with the ship.  Here are this week’s picks:
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan: Toledo -17
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Value: 83
Our prediction models like the Rockets to blow the doors off Eastern Michigan this week despite playing on the road.  Toledo is a much more talented team top to bottom and has a potent offense which is averaging 45 points a game. Eastern Michigan plays out of a city named Ypsilanti, Michigan, which should tell you everything you need to know about the level of talent on that team. Toledo wins big.
 
Bet: 1 unit
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Colorado @ USC: Under 64
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Value: 97 (Bet of the week)
USC has looked like a different offense after switching QBs three games into the season.  New QB Sam Darnold is throwing for 100 more yards per game compared to Max Browne, is running for touchdowns, and has yet to throw an INT.  Despite that, Colorado boasts the 13th ranked defense in the country and should limit the Trojans offensively. USC’s defensive front demolished ASU last week and if they can repeat that kind of performance it should limit Colorado’s scoring potential.
 
Bet: 2 units
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Washington @ Oregon: Oregon +9
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Value: 87
Classic let down game for Washington.  Fresh off of smoking Stanford last week they play cross state rival on the road.  Even though Oregon has been shitty this year, they have beat the Huskies the last twelve times they played and won all of those games except one by more then 17 points.  Washington wins by a late field goal or touchdown and Oregon covers.
Bet: 1 unit
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UCLA @ Arizona State: Arizona State +10
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I keep going to the well with Arizona State and it keeps not working. But if there’s anything I’ve learned about gambling it’s that if something you’re doing isn’t working – keep doing it. This may explain why I’m 1-7 over the last two weeks.  I’m taking the points at home and if the Sundevils don’t cover I’m breaking it off with them and we’re never getting back together.
Bet: 1 unit
 
Of note, our prediction models love the Sooners -10 versus Texas.  Anyone who’s watched Texas at all this year probably understands why that’s a good pick, but I refuse to commit the cardinal sin of picking against my team in any fashion.  We’re 2-2 and our coach is probably getting fired soon, but OU still sucks.
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Nothing is better than the original…
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Last Week: 0-4
Overall: 4-11-1

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