Week 7 Picks

October 14, 2016
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2-2 never felt so good.  I normally don’t like celebrating mediocrity (i.e. Aggie football) but after going 1-7 the previous two weeks, I’ll take the .500 record and hitting my bet of the week.  Hopefully this signals a turning point in the season, because otherwise I will run out of money soon.
Here are this weeks picks:

Duke@ Louisville: Duke +35.5

Value: 80
Friday night special pick!  This line opened at +27.5 and immediately was bet up before leveling off where it is now.  I always feel a little dirty wagering on Duke because it feels like I’m supporting the type of guys who’s rich dad helped them get out of a DWI conviction in high school, but this is simply too many points.  It’s not that Louisville isn’t capable of running up the score, it’s whether they’ll have the motivation to do so.  Look for Louisville to jump out to an early lead, then for Duke to score late in garbage time for the backdoor cover.
Bet: 1 unit
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San Diego State @ Fresno State: San Diego State -17
Value: 83
Friday night double header special!  This line opened at SDST-17.5 and has been oscillating around -17 since then.  My expectation is that money will eventually come in on SDST and this will be bet up to -19 or so by game time.  Fresno State comes into the game having lost 7 of their last 8 games and despite losing their last game, our prediction models like SDST as the clearly superior team.  Look for the Aztecs and star running back Donnell Pumphrey to run wild.
Bet: 1 unit
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Western Michigan @ Akron: Under 68.5
Value: 90 (Bet of the Week)
Western Michigan is ranked for the first time in program history which is quite an accomplishment for their coach, PJ Fleck.  He’ll like reward their fans by leaving for a better job as soon as he possibly can, but let’s ride the happy sentiment for a while at least.  Western Michigan is a solid defensive team – 2nd in the conference and 23rd overall in the nation,  which should help limit some Akron’s scoring chances.  It should also help that Akron’s starting QB is currently out with a shoulder injury.  I expect Western Michigan to win handily and limit Akron’s scoring enough that the game still goes under.
Bet: 2 units
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Ball State @ Buffalo: Buffalo +10.5
Value: 90 
I’ve had to watched as much MAC football as anyone in the country this year, which mostly consisted of me screaming at the TV as another wager goes down in flames.  But this is my kind of pick – got to love an underdog getting a large amount of points at home.  This line opened at -9 but money has steadily come in on Ball State, probably because Buffalo is 1-4 both overall and against the spread this year.  However, Ball State is just 3-7 ATS itself in it’s last 10 games against losing teams and 1-4 ATS in it’s last 5 conference games.  Our prediction models like Buffalo to keep it closer then expected at home.
Bet: 1 unit
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Iowa State @ Texas: Under 70
Value: 93
Here is where math and common sense seem to be at odds.  As discussed at length on the podcast, Texas’ defense has been an abortion this year.  Other then UTEP, no one has scored less then 45 points on us all year.  And it’s not like Iowa State hasn’t been able to the score points – they’re averaging 39 points per game in their last 3.  But despite all that, all three prediction models heavily favor the under and I’m obligated to report that.  Money will continue to come in on the over considering both team’s propensities for shoot outs so if for some crazy reason you decide to bet this, it’s best to wait for a better number near kickoff.
Bet: 1 unit
Other bets I like this weekend:
Georgia -14 over Vandy
FAU @ Marshall under 68.5
UMass +14.5 over LaTech
Last Week: 2-2
Overall: 6-13-1

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