Data Dan’s Week 8 Picks

October 20, 2016
Stock photo of concept Traffic sign for Winners or Losers. Photo concept made for advertising / promotion, bussines reports, editorial, books, brochures, posters, multimedia, websites, presentations, etc.

Stock photo of concept Traffic sign for Winners or Losers. Photo concept made for advertising / promotion, bussines reports, editorial, books, brochures, posters, multimedia, websites, presentations, etc.

Finally a good week!  Like Jon Snow after that big tittied red witch gave him a hair cut and laid hands on him, I am back from the dead. I went 4-1 last week and nailed my bet of the week (which is 2-0 since I introduced it 2 weeks ago). As much as I would like to bask in the glory of a good week, I unfortunately have to continue making picks.  Here is what is on deck this week:
Oregon @ Cal: Under 87.5
 
Value: 87
I get that this spread should be high – both teams are high scoring and have atrocious defenses.  But my god 87.5 is a lot of points.  Oregon has been really struggling and has yet to put up more than 33 points in any road game this year. Moreover, only one of their last five games (all relatively high scoring mind you) would have had enough points to cover this mammoth number.  Expect lots of points, just not enough to go over.
Bet: 1 unit
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UMass @ South Carolina: UMass +20.5 (Bet of the week)

 
Value: 90
Call me crazy, but favoring a South Carolina team that has yet to score more than 20 points in any game and ranks 126th in total offense this season by three touchdowns seems a little off.  I recognize that the UMass Minutemen are a bad team who’s mascot sounds like a euphemism for premature ejaculation, but South Carolina is so offensively challenged that I don’t see them being able to score enough to cover a large spread. South Carolina wins, but UMass covers.
 
Bet: 2 units
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Central Michigan @ Toledo: Toledo -10.5
 
Value: 80
Toledo is a crazy 55-53 loss to BYU away from being undefeated and has averaged nearly 46 points per game over their last 4 games. Meanwhile, their QB Logan Woodside has thrown at least 4 TDs in five straight games. CMU on the other hand has won their last two but required triple overtime to put away NIU and barely squeaked out a 24-21 at Ball State.  Look for Woodside to continue to light it up and for the Rockets to roll.
 
Bet: 1 unit
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Colorado state @ UNLV: Colorado St +2.5
 
Value: 83
This line opened as a pick but money has come in on UNLV to increase the spread to -2.5, which is a good thing. I have a soft spot in my heart for Colorado State after leading them all the way to the national championship in NCAA07 on Xbox.  They have not achieved that kind of success since but are coming off a competitive 28-23 loss to ranked Boise State.  Our predictions models like the Rams as the superior team and to pull of a mild upset on the road.
 
Bet: 1 unit
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Illinois @ Michigan: Illinois +36.5
 
Value: 83
Will Jim Harbaugh be a dick and run up the score?  He’s obviously capable of it after beating Rutgers 78-0 in the Wolverines last game. He also still drinks a giant glass of milk with his steaks and used to play baseball alone as a kid because no one liked him.  So overall a pretty weird guy. However, Illinois is also coming off a 24-7 win against Rutgers and should be able to sustain at least a few drives against this tough Michigan defense.  I’ll take the points.
Bet: 1 unit  
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OU @ Tech: Under 84
 
Value: 87
This is basically Oregon at Cal southwest.  Two teams with bad defenses who can put up lots of points.  However, Tech looked so horrible at home against WVU last week that their head coach literally had to apologize to their fans and alumni.  I realize this is a night game in Lubbock so the Tech fans will be drunk off their asses throwing tortillas and what not, but I’m not sure Tech will be able to recover from such a poor performance to score enough to cover this number.  As an aside, Baker Mayfield is grade A dickhead and I hope he does terrible.
Bet: 1 unit
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Last week: 4-1
Overall: 10-14-1
Bet of the week: 2-0

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