Data Dan’s Week 9 Picks

October 27, 2016
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Another solid week!  I went 4-2 last week with the only two bets I missed on being totals bets (just slightly off betting the under on that shit show of a Tech/OU game).  Also my bet of the week hit again and is now 3-0 since it’s inception. I definitely had a shaky start to the year, but hopefully I’m starting to find my footing and I have the opportunity to go above .500 for the year with my picks this week.  This week there are several Thursdayand Friday games I like which should get the action started early.  Here are my picks:

Akron @ Buffalo: Buffalo +17.5

Value: 83
Our projection models seem to really like Buffalo this season for whatever reason.  The last time I picked them they squeaked out a cover by a half point, so I guess that gives me some wiggle room to ride with them again.  Akron is a far superior team but are playing their second game in five days on the road and fatigue should be a factor.  Both of Buffalo’s covers this season occurred at home and they generally play better there. The line opened at -16 but has since risen to -17.5 and I expect it will continue to rise a little more before kickoff. Wait for the better number and look for Buffalo to cover against a tired and unmotivated Akron team.
Bet: 1 unit
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Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern: Over 44.5

Value: 80
I was going to make a joke about this game being a tradition as old as college football but apparently this actually is a rivalry game dating back to 1932, also known as “Deeper then hate”.  Basically both schools represent the backwoods hillbilly demographic from Deliverance and for some reason they hate each other, which I find odd since they’re probably all related somehow.  Anyways this game has been generally high scoring in recent years and would have covered this number the last 4 times these teams played. While both team’s offenses are predominantly run oriented, neither team has had an O/U set this low in any game they’ve played this season.  Look for a competitive, higher then expected scoring game.
Bet: 1 unit  
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Air Force @ Fresno State: Over 53.5
Value: 87
I have to say I’m excited to actually get to bet some overs this week.  Our projections usuallyfavor unders, which can be good bets, but are generally pretty terrible to root for.  Fresno State is fresh off of firing their head coach after losing six straight, including games in which they gave up 48, 45, and 52 points.  Air Force’s last three games have gone over and they should be motivated to play well after an embarassing loss to Hawaii last week.  Our projections like Air Force to win big, but with Fresno State scoring enough to cover the over.
Bet: 1 unit
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Western Kentucky @ FAU: Western Kentucky -21
Value: 83
This is a matchup between the best and worst teams in Conference USA.  Western Kentucky is averaging 40 points per game this season and their starting QB Mike White is throwing for over 300 yards per game and has a 20:5 TD/INT ratio.  FAU on the other hand is 1-6 this season, both in actual record and against the spread.  Their QB, who gives a shit what his name is, has a 4:6 TD/INT ratio and is only throwing for 185 yards per game, which is a problem when you’re playing from behind.  Western Kentucky jumps out to an early lead, followed by FAU’s mistake prone QB turning the ball over trying to play catch up. The hilltoppers top another hill.
Bet: 1 unit
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Auburn @ Ole Miss: Under 63.5
Value: 93 (Bet of the Week)
Our projections finally like a game that will actually be nationally televised – thank god. I was starting to drown in MAC and Conference USA games there for a bit.  Auburn is fresh off a 56-3 ass whooping of Arkansas but is playing on the road which will hopefully help stifle their offense a bit.  Their defense on the other hand is ranked 18th nationally, just held Arkansas to 3 points last game, and has a good shot to limit Ole Miss’ scoring if they can get pressure on Chad Kelly.  Look for a close game that stays below this somewhat sizable total for a SEC rivalry game.
Bet: 2 units
 
Last Week: 4-2
Overall: 14-16-1
Bet of the Week: 3-0

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