Data Dan’s Week 10 Picks

November 4, 2016
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Last week was pretty meh.  I went 2-3 but missed by a single score on all three of my over/under’s including losing on a meaningless end of game goal line stand by App State which screwed the over. Hopefully those close calls will bounce in my favor this week.  Here are my picks:

Vanderbilt @ Auburn: OVER 45

 
Value: 90 (**Bet of the week**)
This low total is predicated on how low scoring Vanderbilt games have been as of late – the haven’t scored more then 16 points in any of the last three games, while at the same time holding their opponents to no more then 20.  However, Auburn is a much better offensive team than any of Vandy’s recent opponents and are red hot offensively scoring 40, 56, and 38 points in their last three games. I expect Auburn to hang 35-40 points on Vandy, which would almost certainly mean that the game is going over. This line opened at 45.5 but I would grab this lower number ASAP as I expect this total to rise prior to kick off.
Bet: 1 unit
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Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Northwestern +7
 
Value: 87
Northwestern has done nothing but cover for the last month, including in their last game where they played Ohio State close in a game where they were 25.5 point underdogs.  It also helps that nearly all of Wisconsin’s games are low scoring and close, with all of their last 4 games having been decided by 8 points or less.  Wisconsin is coming off a very difficult stretch of games and could be in for a let down. The line opened at +6, but money has come in on the Badgers and it has since risen to +7.  I like Northwestern to cover with a chance to win outright.
Bet: 1 unit
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TCU @ Baylor: Baylor -7.5
 
Value: 83
As much as I’m grossed out by the entire Baylor program (only four gang rapes since 2011!), I think they are the correct pick here. Have you seen the Frogs play football this year?  I have, and they are fucking terrible.  TCU has failed to cover any of their last 4 games, going 1-3 in that stretch with the only win being a one point nail biter against freaking Kansas, who Baylor coincidentally beat by 42 points.  Baylor’s offense is hard to stop, does not take no for an answer (on and off the field), and will score points against TCU. Our numbers don’t see this game being close.
 
Bet: 1 unit
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FAU @ Rice: Rice -4
 
Value: 83
An exciting battle between two 1-7 Conference USA teams!  These teams are both bad – neither has beaten an FBS team all year. However, FAU has only covered once this season, while Rice has been more competitive going 3-4-1 ATS.  FAU has three offensive lineman that are injured or questionable this week and on top of that, their coaching staff has failed to name a starting QB this week. This is either pointless gamesmanship in a meaningless game or signals that they’re going to bench their starter.  Either way, our data likes Rice as the better of two shitty teams, and I expect them to win by a touchdown or more at home.
Bet: 1 unit
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Nebraska vs. Ohio State: Over 52
 
Value: 90
 
Nebraska has gone under in each of their last 6 games – so why take the under?  1) Nothing makes sense in gambling and the universe is random. 2) Ohio State is the best offense they’ve faced all year. Despite their recent struggles, the Buckeyes are heavy home favorites and if JT Barrett can get going at home I expect them to put up enough points to go over. Our projections expect approximately 60 points to be scored in this game.
Bet: 1 Unit
 
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 16-19-1
Bet of the week: 3-1

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