Longhorn Leap - The unofficial official podcast of UT athletics

1977 Photo Tom Lankes   Earl Campbell, UT, runs over an SMU player on his way to the Heisman Trophy.  ORG XMIT:

Paul Kittrell makes his second appearance as the guys discuss the committee’s 4 playoff teams, early spreads for the games, Tom Herman, and if Ohio State really should have really been the 4 seed. They also unintentionally spend a lot of the podcast slobbering all over Alabama and their 2016 dominance (we’re not psyched about it either). Part 2 of this episode will be available Thursday December 8th.

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  • The season came to an end as did the Charlie Strong era, but hope springs eternal as the guys say their goodbyes to Charlie and give initial thoughts on Tom Herman. It was a crazy week for the University of Texas football program and it should be a crazy end of the 2016 season for the teams competing for the National Championship.

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The guys talk more about the playoff picture and Texas’s head coaching position than they do about the upcoming Texas v. Kansas game. Myrick is 5-1 against the spread the last 6 weeks picking the Texas game. Does he like the Longhorns to cover the 24 points in Lawrence? Will this be the week Myrick and Daniel finally pick an Arkansas game correctly? Who will be the head football coach in 2017?

 

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Had to take a week off last week after another atrocious week of college football picks to lick my wounds and do some soul searching.  After winning the money back I lost on college betting on MMA and the NFL over the weekend, I decided I still like gambling!  LETS DO THIS SHIT – week 12 picks are:

Arkansas State @ Troy: Troy -8
Value: 88
Sun Belt conference Thursday night special! Troy is fresh off a close win over Appalachian State and have won seven straight overall.  Arkansas State meanwhile started 0-4 but has come on strong over the latter half of the year.  Our projections like Troy on both sides of the ball and expect them to win by two touchdowns.
Bet: 1 unit
 
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Buffalo @ Western Michigan: Over 60
 
Value: 83
 
Where is the love for the Western Michigan Broncos in the College Football Playoff?! 10-0 and they have been curb stomping teams for the most part.  The Broncos put up 37 points last week against Kent State which was their lowest total since week 2.  The line for this game is -34.5 so Vegas expects them to roll Buffalo with ease.  A couple garbage time scores for Buffalo puts this game over the total.
Bet: 1 unit
 
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Air Force @ San Jose State: Air Force -10
 
Value: 90 (Bet of the Week)
 
Generally speaking, teams that are named [insert random city name] state are extremely shitty teams.  San Jose State is no exception having gone 3-7 on the year.  While they have remained competitive in their last 2 games, our projections like Air Force as a far superior team and expect them to roll.
 
Bet: 1.5 units
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Bonus NFL quick hitters:
 
Lions -7 (TEASER ALERT)
Chiefs -7.5 (TEASER ALERT)
Houston +6
 
Last week: 2-4
Overall: 18-23-1
Bet of the week: 3-2
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Last week was pretty meh.  I went 2-3 but missed by a single score on all three of my over/under’s including losing on a meaningless end of game goal line stand by App State which screwed the over. Hopefully those close calls will bounce in my favor this week.  Here are my picks:

Vanderbilt @ Auburn: OVER 45

 
Value: 90 (**Bet of the week**)
This low total is predicated on how low scoring Vanderbilt games have been as of late – the haven’t scored more then 16 points in any of the last three games, while at the same time holding their opponents to no more then 20.  However, Auburn is a much better offensive team than any of Vandy’s recent opponents and are red hot offensively scoring 40, 56, and 38 points in their last three games. I expect Auburn to hang 35-40 points on Vandy, which would almost certainly mean that the game is going over. This line opened at 45.5 but I would grab this lower number ASAP as I expect this total to rise prior to kick off.
Bet: 1 unit
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Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Northwestern +7
 
Value: 87
Northwestern has done nothing but cover for the last month, including in their last game where they played Ohio State close in a game where they were 25.5 point underdogs.  It also helps that nearly all of Wisconsin’s games are low scoring and close, with all of their last 4 games having been decided by 8 points or less.  Wisconsin is coming off a very difficult stretch of games and could be in for a let down. The line opened at +6, but money has come in on the Badgers and it has since risen to +7.  I like Northwestern to cover with a chance to win outright.
Bet: 1 unit
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TCU @ Baylor: Baylor -7.5
 
Value: 83
As much as I’m grossed out by the entire Baylor program (only four gang rapes since 2011!), I think they are the correct pick here. Have you seen the Frogs play football this year?  I have, and they are fucking terrible.  TCU has failed to cover any of their last 4 games, going 1-3 in that stretch with the only win being a one point nail biter against freaking Kansas, who Baylor coincidentally beat by 42 points.  Baylor’s offense is hard to stop, does not take no for an answer (on and off the field), and will score points against TCU. Our numbers don’t see this game being close.
 
Bet: 1 unit
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FAU @ Rice: Rice -4
 
Value: 83
An exciting battle between two 1-7 Conference USA teams!  These teams are both bad – neither has beaten an FBS team all year. However, FAU has only covered once this season, while Rice has been more competitive going 3-4-1 ATS.  FAU has three offensive lineman that are injured or questionable this week and on top of that, their coaching staff has failed to name a starting QB this week. This is either pointless gamesmanship in a meaningless game or signals that they’re going to bench their starter.  Either way, our data likes Rice as the better of two shitty teams, and I expect them to win by a touchdown or more at home.
Bet: 1 unit
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Nebraska vs. Ohio State: Over 52
 
Value: 90
 
Nebraska has gone under in each of their last 6 games – so why take the under?  1) Nothing makes sense in gambling and the universe is random. 2) Ohio State is the best offense they’ve faced all year. Despite their recent struggles, the Buckeyes are heavy home favorites and if JT Barrett can get going at home I expect them to put up enough points to go over. Our projections expect approximately 60 points to be scored in this game.
Bet: 1 Unit
 
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 16-19-1
Bet of the week: 3-1