Longhorn Leap - The unofficial official podcast of UT athletics

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What a horrible week of college gambling that was.  I managed to pitch a shut out going 0-4 on my picks last week and over the last two weeks I’m now an atrocious 1-7.  I should be ashamed of myself.  On the plus side, I got married last weekend and spent the entire week in Hawaii which lessened the blow somewhat.  I may just start picking names out of hat or something because literally any system of making picks would work better than mine has the last two weeks.  But like any good captain, I plan to go down with the ship.  Here are this week’s picks:
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan: Toledo -17
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Value: 83
Our prediction models like the Rockets to blow the doors off Eastern Michigan this week despite playing on the road.  Toledo is a much more talented team top to bottom and has a potent offense which is averaging 45 points a game. Eastern Michigan plays out of a city named Ypsilanti, Michigan, which should tell you everything you need to know about the level of talent on that team. Toledo wins big.
 
Bet: 1 unit
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Colorado @ USC: Under 64
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Value: 97 (Bet of the week)
USC has looked like a different offense after switching QBs three games into the season.  New QB Sam Darnold is throwing for 100 more yards per game compared to Max Browne, is running for touchdowns, and has yet to throw an INT.  Despite that, Colorado boasts the 13th ranked defense in the country and should limit the Trojans offensively. USC’s defensive front demolished ASU last week and if they can repeat that kind of performance it should limit Colorado’s scoring potential.
 
Bet: 2 units
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Washington @ Oregon: Oregon +9
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Value: 87
Classic let down game for Washington.  Fresh off of smoking Stanford last week they play cross state rival on the road.  Even though Oregon has been shitty this year, they have beat the Huskies the last twelve times they played and won all of those games except one by more then 17 points.  Washington wins by a late field goal or touchdown and Oregon covers.
Bet: 1 unit
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UCLA @ Arizona State: Arizona State +10
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I keep going to the well with Arizona State and it keeps not working. But if there’s anything I’ve learned about gambling it’s that if something you’re doing isn’t working – keep doing it. This may explain why I’m 1-7 over the last two weeks.  I’m taking the points at home and if the Sundevils don’t cover I’m breaking it off with them and we’re never getting back together.
Bet: 1 unit
 
Of note, our prediction models love the Sooners -10 versus Texas.  Anyone who’s watched Texas at all this year probably understands why that’s a good pick, but I refuse to commit the cardinal sin of picking against my team in any fashion.  We’re 2-2 and our coach is probably getting fired soon, but OU still sucks.
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Nothing is better than the original…
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Last Week: 0-4
Overall: 4-11-1

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The Red River Shootout is upon us! Topics include strolling down memory lane with our favorite games, getting you updated on who’s injured and active, making fun of the Stoops brothers, pondering how many times Texas will get 7 points after scoring a touchdown, and the leap around the nation segment where the guys about other big games this weekend.

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Much anticipated sequels rarely live up to the original, however this podcast episode is crazy good. The guys talk about what record Coach Strong needs in the remaining 8 games to save his job, what options @chuckfnstrong has if Charlie is canned, and then they leap around the nation and hit on Washington’s big win and their horrible non conference schedule. What’s the playoff picture looking like now?

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Quick column this week as I’m busy getting drunk on a beach in Hawaii for my honeymoon. I continued my ice cold start to the year going 1-3 last week (my nfl picks are 8-3! I swear! Please believe me!), so a viable strategy could be Costanza’ing my picks and doing the opposite of what I recommend. Here’s this weeks losers:

Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green: Bowling Green -2.5
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Value: 100
 
Bet: 2 units
 
Here we go again with bowling green. After letting me down in a big way 2 weeks ago the prediction models again love the Falcons this week. Like erection lasting longer then 4 hours love. God help me.
Navy @ Air Force: Navy +7

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Value: 93
Bet: 1 unit  
 
The ocean vs the sky! Wind vs. water! Falcons versus boat people! The prediction models seem to really like Navy this year and continue that trend picking them as a road underdog.
Memphis @ Ole Miss: Memphis +14.5

Memphis defensive back Dontrell Nelson (10) breaks up a pass intended for Mississippi wide receiver Laquon Treadwell  (1) in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015, in Memphis, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Value: 97
Bet: 1 unit
 
The data likes Memphis to keep it closer then expected on the road against Ole Miss this week. Ole Miss is pretty pissed about losing to Memphis last year, but they should be in for a letdown after the beat down they laid on Georgia last week.
Arizona St. @ USC: ASU +10.5

Sep 28, 2013; Tempe, AZ, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils defensive tackle Will Sutton (90) celebrates with defensive end Davon Coleman (43) after sacking USC Trojans quarterback Cody Kessler (6) during the first half at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Value: 93
 
Bet: 1 unit
 
Just from an eyeball test 10.5 points is lot to give to a 4-0 team from a major conference playing a 1-3 team, even on the road. Even if USC is better then their record suggests, I’ll take the points.
Last Week: 1-3
Overall: 4-7-1

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Last weekend we had the privilege to meet the aggie meme guy. As mentioned in episode 4  of the podcast (Longhorn Leap, you can subscribe on iTunes, or soundcloud), when you google dumb aggie fan, this guy’s picture pops up first. Ironically he’s now a doctor, so even though he’s an aggie, he is far from dumb. He is also a really nice guy and a great sport about his internet infamy. Bottom line is that everyone who truly cares about a team has had that look on their face at some point. I think that’s why that picture is so hilarious, because even though I was probably really happy with whatever inspired that look on his face, I empathize with him as a sports fan.

When Paul and I approached him at the wedding reception of our mutual friend, he was extremely personable and gladly talked to us about that fateful moment. When asked what was going through his mind he said, and I’m paraphrasing here, I just couldn’t believe what was happening. Now I was a few drinks in at a wedding reception mind you but I told him how we were anxiously awaiting this meeting and asked him if he would take some pictures with Paul making that face. He obliged. We are very thorough here at the Longhorn Leap so we got pictures from different angles. Enjoy!

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We’d like to thank Aggie Meme Guy for being such a great sport. We’d also like to thank him for providing us with the original meme that makes us laugh every time we use it. Hopefully he never makes this face as a physician.

 

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Data Dan took advantage of the bye week and got married so the guys took the show on the road to Dallas. Topics include how many carries Foreman and Warren will get, how many touchdown passes Okie State will throw, and @ChuckFnStrong tweets. At the 19:o1 mark Daniel interviewed Paul Kittrell about the then upcoming Arkansas/A&M game.

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There are certain coaches and players in college football and the NFL that make our lives better. I love watching Tony Romo, Jay Culter, and Phil Rivers play quarterback and it has nothing to do with their abilities to throw the ball. Similarly head coaches, especially in college football, can make for must see tv and can provide a great viewing experience regardless of the score. My favorite coaches to watch on the sidelines (in no particular order) are Dana Holgorsen, Bob Stoops, Bo Pelini (even though he’s in witness protection at Youngstown State right now), Rich Rodriguez, Dabo Swinney, and Jim Harbaugh (RIP Steve Spurier from this list, not from the world). Each has their own niche. Holgorsen is a maniac on the sidelines, and I mean that literally, he’s constantly in a manic state. You can usually tell how the Mountaineers’ games are going by the state of Holgorsen’s hair. He also has an aptitude for throwing things off his head, be it a visor or his headset.

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Big game Bob used to be a sincere nickname for Stoops. Now it’s an ironic term typically used by Longhorn fans when the Sooners embarrass themselves in the spotlight. Prime examples of this are 3 of their last 4 games; a home loss to Ohio St, an open season loss vs Houston, and their playoff debacle vs Clemson. Bob’s facial expressions and body language during all of those games were fantastic, stewed to perfection even. I pray Big game Bob continues at his post in Norman so we can continue to enjoy.

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While all these men are at least slightly mentally unstable, the weirdest has to be Jim Harbaugh. During episode 3 of Longhorn Leap – Leap Around the Nation – Myrick pointed out that Harbaugh seems to be getting weirder as he gets older. I couldn’t agree more. I have no idea what it’s like to actually hang out with Harbaugh, but I bet it’s an experience you can otherwise only achieve by taking hallucinogens. As promised here is the clip of Harbaugh in his previous life as a normal dude going on what has turned out to be an extremely dated 90’s tv show.

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Welcome back to Week 4 of Data Dan’s College football picks!  Week 3 was an unmitigated disaster for my picks and for real college football as well. The two unders I took flamed out spectacularly and Bowling Green took a dump on the field during the second half after a promising 1st half against Middle Tennessee State.  Thankfully my two bigger bets (FAU/KSU over and BYU +3) won and pushed which salvaged the week. Sort of.  In other news, Texas lost, giving up 50 points to Cal in the process with a defense that looked more porous then one of Antonio Cromartie’s condoms. So bad times all around.

 

This week Texas is on a bye so I can focus all of my college football energy into my picks.  It’s going to be a good week, I can feel it.  As a reminder, my picks are based on 3 different mathematical predication models (TeamRankings, NumbersFire and Sportsline) and I try to remain as objective as possible in how I select which games to pick.  This week I’ve decided to just average the 3 models together and assign a value score on a scale of 1-100 rather then report each models individual odds.

 

Here are the picks:

 

Pitt @ UNC:  UNC -7

 

Value (1-100): 90

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All 3 models favor UNC at home with the strongest recommendation coming from Sportsline (87 value, A grade pick per their model).  Pitt did it’s best Texas impression last week with it’s secondary giving up 500 yards of passing offense against Oklahoma State last week. UNC QB Mitch Trubisky has looked good in his last two games throwing for nearly 700 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs in that span and should be poised to take advantage of that weak secondary. I expect a reasonably high scoring game with UNC winning by two touchdowns at home.

 

 

Bet: 1 Unit

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Oklahoma State @ Baylor: Baylor -8

 

Value (0-100): 93

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The Data tends to ignore things like poor taste (such as hosting Art Briles and Shawn Oakman, one of the many dudes kicked off the team for sexual assault, in the locker room last weekend – seriously Baylor?) which might explain why the prediction models love the Bears this weekend.  Both Sportsline and NumbersFire heavily favor Baylor in this matchup.  Oklahoma State has been erratic to say the least and gave up 38 and 30 points to the Pitt and freaking Central Michigan in their last two games.  Baylor should score in droves in this game and final score of 41-28 feels right.

 

Bet: 2 Units

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Iowa @ Rutgers: IOWA -13

 

Value: 87

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Strange week as the Data seems to like a lot of favorites.  I read last night that Rutgers shut down it’s pre-game tailgate because their AD was filmed drinking a beer there before their last game.  What kind of weak ass shit is that?  I hope their fans boycott the game or at least turn their backs to the field in shame.  I feel slightly dicey about this one given that Iowa just lost to North Dakota State last weekend, but it’s not like NDSU hasn’t beaten FBS opponents in the past.  Also, Rutgers only had one Big10 win last year and lost the majority of their conference games by an average of 27 points.  Look for an angry Iowa team to stomp Rutgers on the road.

 

Bet: 1 unit

 

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Arkansas @ Texas A&M: Arkansas +6

 

Value: 90

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It gave me great pleasure to see our prediction models heavily favoring the Razorbacks this weekend at Jerryworld.  I won’t lie – A&M getting a solid road win against Auburn last week while Texas sputtered against Cal did not feel good. I won’t be able to watch the game (I’ll be busy getting married) but I should be able to gauge how the game is going by my die-hard Razorback fan friend Paul’s level of sobriety and overall demeanor during the wedding reception. God I hope the Aggies lose.

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Bet: 2 units

 

 

Last week: 1-3-1

Overall Record: 3-4-1